Are Bay Area Home Prices Decoupling from Stock Market?

The correlation between single family home prices in San Mateo County has been pretty good for many years now, but there seems to be a decoupling at the moment like what happened in 2011. Likely this is temporary, the market has already come down about 1,000 points since its September 2019 highs. However, home prices seem to be declining even while stocks were rising over the past couple of months.

Cumulative 12 months for Homes sold vs. New Listing
Black = Homes Sold ||| Grey = New Listings

Other than prices, most other stats seem close to normal for this time of year.

  • Closings Low: there were only 310 closings in September 2018, which is low but there were 317 in 2018 however the numbers are usually closer to 400.
  • New Listings: there were 572 in September 2019. This is slightly lower than the 611 in 2018 but the number is typically closer to 500, so we are a bit on the higher side.
  • 12 Month Closings vs. New Listings: Looking over the past 12 months, the number of new listing is pretty normal at approximately 5,000 but the number of closings at approximately 4,100 is slightly below normal. Closings represent 82% of new listings. In a strong market the numbers are more in the higher 80s, in slower periods it will dip into the 60s.

So we are still in a relatively good market but it cooled a little. Homes prices in the past three months are down about 2% compared to the same period in 2018. Today’s currently active homes have been on the market for about 52 days, twice that of homes sold in September 2019. This is a sign of a slower market, where buyers are more discriminating.

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